EUR/GBP Trade:

  • This trade was taken on the 30th and has never turned negative on me from the get-go however has been ranging from the 0.7450 - 0.7500 region all yesterday and finally broke out to make a new weekly high. It still has a far ways to go and could see lots of resistance to come beginning at the 0.7550 and on. I will monitor the trade however stop loss has been set to break even and current pip count is at 65+ per lot.

EUR-GBP, Feb. 1, 2008

GBP/NZD:

  • I’ve also taken a minuscule position on this pair as I like the downward outlook on the pair as per the Daily chart and given the relative strength of the New Zealand Dollar (COT + Commodities) lately and poor news coming out of the UK (negative Manufacturing PMI results), this is a decent trade. However I am breaking one of the golden rules by having two pairs of a currency trading at the same time; GBP, however the lot size is minimal and I will try to minimize this doing this in the future.
  • Currently up +100 pips on this pair with only one very small lot and will probably terminate this trade very shortly being that its Friday and profit taking sets in. Furthermore, the pair has already overshot its Average Daily Range for the day which only adds to the argument of quitting while your ahead.

GBP-NZD-Daily Charts, Feb. 1

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In other news, today was U.S. Non-Farms Payrolls and it turns out that the US economy lost jobs in January for the first time in more than four years, a decline likely to further stoke recessionary fears even though the unemployment rate dipped a bit from the prior month. The economy lost 17,000 jobs in January, a surprise drop compared to the 58,000 jobs economists polled by Thomson’s IFR Markets had expected from the survey of employer payrolls. This marks the first monthly loss in non-farm payrolls since August 2003. In summary, nothing really dramatic has changed as the downward spiraling trend and sentiment of the U.S. economy continues and hence putting continued pressure on the lowly U.S. Dollar.

According to DailyFX, “originally we expected a return gradualism, meaning that the 50bp rate cut would be followed by a smaller move, but at this point, we may even see another intermeeting cut. A return to 1.00 percent interest rates is also a realistic possibility. Traders should hold their horses however since we have over 6 weeks before the next rate decision and incoming economic data could easily change the Fed’s minds.”




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