Outlook For Trading This Week.
Posted on January 28th, 2008 by Yours Truly under Forex
Lots of news is coming out of the U.S. this week with the big anticipated interest rate statement on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. I don’t expect to be trading any U.S. pairs this week as there will be extreme volatility that can go either way. According to Bloomberg, analysts are calling for only a 25bp rate cut but the futures market is pricing in a greater chance of a 50bp cut.
According to PFXGlobal’s Total Fundamental Strength Analysis for the week, it suggests that the AUD and NZD will be the strongest pairs this week with the Yen and Franc again remaining the weakest.
On the COT report charts, EUR/USD and AUD/USD both crossed to the downside which signals a potential downtrend for the week.
I stumbled upon a neat article on DailyFX regarding a New Zealand Dollar’s potential break off its 10-year support line against the Euro and predicts a swing to the upside with potential 3,000+ pip increase once the triangle formation breaks out of its pattern.
I have currently been swinging back and forth between two trading methods: The Demark Trend Lines and the HectorTrader 3 SMA methods. My dear friend, Autopips, is having great success with the the Demark Trend Lines method and I will keeping a close eye on his findings as it provides huge returns albeit with more risky. He has netted 3,216 pips in December alone!
With the 3 SMA method, the EUR/GBP may be ready for its next move up on the Daily charts which can potentially result in an easy 150+ pips to the previous swing high once the downward triangle breaks and as we all know, the pip value on this pair is twice those of USD crosses.
2.00%
5.00%
8.25%
7.25% 
4.00%
2.75%
3.00%
0.50%
January 28th, 2008 at 4:55 am
nice one on the EURGBP. I’m also keeping an eye on it, it is bouncing a bit of the .7400 (double 0) support and previous price resistance, I can’t find any major fib support yet though, it should be a bit lower. So I hope it consolidates a bit more, I’ll take it when it breaks up but expect some serious resistance just below .7500.
Nice work.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Interesting on EURGBP, what jumped out at me looking at that chart is the head and shoulders formation.
January 28th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Ken,
Interesting read on that head and shoulders pattern and i’d look for support into the .7350 region but I fully expect there will be a breakout around Wednesday out of the flag formation.
TraderW,
If the previous uptrend is any indicator of the magnitude of the next rise, it could be up to 400 pips alone!
February 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hope you guys got in it because price broke out to the upside very nicely, especially with the added push from the PMI Manufacturing numbers out of England.
February 3rd, 2008 at 7:39 am
Just waiting for those 400 pips
If the ECB is not going to take any action, and all trends resume, we (EURO-zone) are going to be out of business within 6 to 9 months.
Keep up the good work.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:20 am
It’ll be a very very slow 400 pips as the EUR/GBP Average Daily Range is a minuscule 60 pips and this could very go to at least the end of the month! LOL!
I see the ECB keeping it steady for a while which will lead to an all-time high on the EUR/USD very shortly and only then, will we see intervention by Mr. Trichet.