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Hi folks, back from a busy holiday season and ready to start the new year with explosive gains in the exciting world of Forex trading. I will be updating everyone on my long trade and my opinion with respect to how the USD/CAD specialized pair will do for this year. For the time being, here’s January’s copy of Currency Trader magazine, which is a must for every aspiring trader.
This month’s edition has great articles on strategy with the ongoing carry trade with the Aussie and Kiwi dollars as well how to property use stop losses.
You can check it out by clicking on the below link:
Sorry for those that missed last month’s edition, I was away on vacation so I was unable to publish it.
Another month has passed by and another edition is here! It has been quite a hectic week with the dramatic decline in the USD, I hope everyone has capitalize the ample opportunities that were presented. Unfortunately, I was not so lucky with my trade but I will share with you the juicy details within the next couple of days.
There was big news in the forex this week with a shift in Japan from a current account surplus to a deficit. It has been 13 years since this has happened and it does present changes that forex traders should be thinking about.
The current account is also known as an economy’s trade balance. If you have a surplus trade balance it means the economy is exporting more than it is importing. The Japanese traditionally have a surplus while the US has had a large deficit for decades.
The current account is one half of the balance of payments. The balance of payments measures all capital and trade flows in and out of an economy. The other half of the balance of payments is the capital account. The capital account should be nearly the mirror image of the current account and therefore “balances” the trade surplus or deficit.
Because the U.S. sustains a large current account (trade) deficit it has a large capital account surplus. The capital account tracks all changes in asset ownership. For example, the U.S. “finances” its current account deficit by selling debt. The transfer of that ownership in debt is tracked in the capital account. The balance of payment in Japan works similarly.
Now that you know what the balance of payments is and how the current account or trade deficit fits within that measure, you can start to apply that information to the trend on the USD/JPY. If exports continue to drop in Japan and the deficit grows, demand for the JPY should weaken. The deficit also creates problems for economic growth in Japan, which should also weaken the JPY.
If you know that the fundamentals are aligning themselves in favor of a weaker JPY you know what direction the USD/JPY or other JPY forex crosses are likely to trend in the near term. Take the chart below as a good example of this application. The JPY has strengthened a few times over the last few weeks and each time has bounced back up from the 23.6% retracement support level.
Daily Chart of USD/JPY
The USD/JPY is at the 23.6% retracement level again and may be lining up for an interesting buy opportunity. A move up from this level could extend all the way to the neckline of 2008’s head and shoulders pattern near 105.00. Aligning fundamentals with technicals like this can help forecast the near term trend.
Everyone has a different situation and must decide for themselves what makes the most financial sense 401k or IRA .BT offers top-of-the-line trading tools
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