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Further to my position opened up last Thursday on the Euro, it enjoyed a momentum filled breakout out of the sideways consolidation pattern and stopping short at the 1.5450 area. An extra +50 pips could have been achieved but I decided in the end to cut it early as it was moving sideways for a good 2 days within a narrow range and honestly did not want to loose out on the pips I’ve already gained.
Anyhow, add an extra +92 pips to the bank for the month. I have glanced at the charts briefly this afternoon and haven’t seen any decent setups on the 4-hour or Daily charts that I prefer. Stay tuned, more to come.
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Status of Open Trades:
My prior EUR/USD position is still open and is currently up +60 pips and has been seesawing within a narrow band between 1.5300-1.5400 and I have already set stop loss to break even so no harm done. My target still remains to be 1.5450.
Potential New Trade Opportunity:
Another possible position may present itself at the moment is the GBP/CHF pair on the 4-hour time frame to the downside. It has been trading for the last two weeks in a consolidated range and has finally broke out towards the trend of the 3 simple moving averages. I will look to exploit this downside upon the breakout and pull back configuration. Here’s what is showing up on my screen at the moment:
PFX Global just recently launched their free Forex Essential course and I have quickly glanced over the material and found it quite useful for the those in between the beginner-intermediate stages. This in conjunction with the education from BabyPips.com should be sufficient enough to cover all the basis of a good foundation.
As expected, both the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their interest rates changed at 4% and 5.25% respectively. ECB President Trichet signalled that strong upward pressure on inflation will remain their central focus which boads well for the appreciation of the Euro. The USD continued its downward spiral into oblivian with more bad news of write downs and here is 5 reasons why it will continue.
Positions:
My second portion of the open EUR/GBP position is only up +2 pips at the moment and was very close from hitting my stop loss which would have resulted in an -9 pip loss but I will leave it open as it is trading in a narrow range especially given the Euros strength.
I also opened a second position on EUR/USD after the interest rate announcement with a smaller than usual lot size and it is currently up +84 pips and am looking to exit before the 1.500 area however if there is a lot of resistance at the 1.5400, I may well cash out early.
Quite a bit of surprise came abouts in the interest rate decision yesterday with the Bank of Canada cutting rates 50bp and the Reserve Bank of Australia upping theirs by 25bp. Aside from that, nothing has really changed and the dollar sentiment is still bearish with the USD/CAD trading below parity and AUD/USD remaining at all-time high levels. What has changed is that risk-aversion remains high due to disappointing results from big banks and technology companies in both Canada and the U.S. which has led to a pullback in Yen and Swiss currency pairs. I haven’t seen much pairs in an trending environment lately however I did profit quite nicely off one.
EUR/GBP
As you can recall from this trade I took last Thursday on the Daily chart, it has been moving relatively sideways until last night where it shot up for a good 25 pips to the upside breaching above its prior triple top confirmation on the 1-hr. Hence my reasoning for taking one half of position off resulting in a profit of +34 pips. The other lot will trade risk-free but 0.7695 remains a profit target as the pair seems to be trading a little ahead of itself.
Another potential setup on the 4-hr chart for the EUR/USD with a breakout of the 1.5300 area.
It’s been a very busy week for me outside of the Forex world and i’m back to update you on the progress of my outstanding positions. From a quick glance, it looks like the looming sub prime mortgage debacle is still lingering around and is pounding the U.S. Dollar into submission with fresh new lows against the Euro, Kiwi and Aussie and the USD/CAD pair is trading below par along with traders pulling out of risky pairs hence the reason for the Yen (3-year low) and Swissy’s appreciation the last couple of days.
I’ll be looking for long on the Euro and short on the dollar for the time being and staying away the CAD and AUD pair for now as there will be major interest rate news to come. The Reserve of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp to 12 year highs while the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25bp to 3.75 percent. Once the news is out of the way, I will be looking to capitalize from the hawkishness sentiment coming out from the European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
February Trading Results
All together, not too shabby month even though I missed countless opportunities on the downward spiral of the British Sterling Pound but again, I was too busy to concentrate fully on Forex hence the majority of the trades were taken on the Daily charts.
February 1 - +288 pips - GBP/NZD
February 5 - +45 pips - EUR/GBP
February 6 - +14 pips - EUR/GBP
February 18 - -33 pips - EUR/GBP
February 28 - +48 pips - EUR/GBP
February 28 - +37 pips - AUD/USD
Total Pips for February = +399
Updated chart of current open position
Currently up +20 pips on my favourite pair as it broke out nicely towards the upside out of its narrow range and would be looking towards exiting half my position near the 0.7700 region.
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2.00%
5.00%
8.00%
7.00% 
4.25%
2.75%
3.00%
0.50%
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