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Yesterday was a great day to go short on GBP based pairs as all of them plummeted severely overshooting their Average Daily Ranges with the EUR/GBP position overshooting its ADR by +15 pips. I am currently +52 pips on my long EUR/GBP position and is currently only 40-50 pips away from the target between 0.7595-0.7615.
Other two possible setups that I am very interested are at the moment lie in the GBP/CHF and CAD/CHF pairs. Other pairs which closely mimic (although are not as nice as the two listed) are the GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY. Here are the two charts as follows:
GBP/CHF: A possible breakout to the down side out of the range support @ 2.1250 would surely signal a short entry.
CAD/CHF: I’m looking for a break-out pull back for me to enter this short position with the target clearly set at 1.0650-1.0600 area as it lies right on the 200-day SMA on the weekly chart.
Well well, back from the dead and back to blogging. I had a rather busy week last week and being that it is the end of a long weekend, I am now back full-time on the job. Results of last weeks experimental trades resulted in a negative profit of -33 pips on the EUR/GBP Daily chart as it simply was moving sideways proving that it isn’t so great exiting in the support areas between the 30 and 50 SMA’s however it did at its peak reach +35 pips. Ah well, you live you learn and it looks like i’ll be taking the safe route from now on.
In terms of news, Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered another pessimistic forecast to Congress on Thursday leaving little doubt that the Fed will continue to lower rates, most likely by another 50bp at the next meeting in March.
There also seems to be a fire sale on the GBP with ALL crosses involving the sterling pound and there exist multiple pairs which anyone can capitalize on at the moment it seems. This new downtrend was sparked by UK government has decided to nationalize the troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC and rejected two private offers despite complaints and threats of litigation from the companies shareholders. This in turn has led the market to believe that more rescues of other UK banking institutions caught in the sub-prime credit crisis may persist in the near future.
I’ve re-entered the trade again as the pair broke out of its flag formation last week however I will enter with a smaller lot than usual as the Northern Rock news also helps my case. If the pair breaks the .7500 region today, it’ll act as great support.
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In other news, you guys might want to peek at my buddy Autopips’ blog as he has been having tremendous results on the Demark Trend Line technique with GBP pairs highlighted with 2,543 PIPS on GBP/CHF Auto Trading System alone in January 2008. Perhaps I should go back and revisit this method soon?
If you have been reading my blog posts for the past 2 weeks or so I have been big on the EUR/GBP pair on the Daily charts especially due to its strong appreciating trend that started in September, which coincided with the sub prime fiasco in the U.S. and in turn spilling over to the U.K. With the interest rate decisions out of the way and with BOE and the ECB having differencing goals at this moment, the EUR remains the stronger of the two. BOE cut rates and will remain in an strong retracting phase mimicing the U.S. counterparts whereas ECB kept rates unchanged and is primarily concerned in battling inflation however rate cuts may be in the intermediate horizon.
I have also decided to play around with my entry strategy and to take trades earlier especially in the dynamic area of support between the 30 and 50 SMA as the pattern suggests a breakout to the upside out of the flag formation. Prices has already bounced off the support area three times within the prior 5 months and if history repeats itself, the pair will continue to appreciate.
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